Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2017-08-12 0815Z

WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TS 14W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS EVIDENCED BY
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IN A 120412Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 120314Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THESE IMAGES AS WELL AS ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL
OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT TO THE EAST. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN
HAS SPURRED THE RECENT IMPROVEMENTS IN STRUCTURE AND INCREASE IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT TO 55 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES/RJTD AND A
120409Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 56 KNOTS. TS 14W IS TURNING POLEWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TOWARD THE BASE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR TS 14W IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, TOWARD THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT DIRECTLY WITH A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND THROUGH A SUPPORTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A STEADY TREND, INTENSIFICATION ABOVE THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED BY BEGIN BY TAU 72 AS TS 14W INTERACTS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH.
   C. TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO, MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES AFTER TAU 24 AS EACH MODEL DEPICTS THE SHARPNESS AND
SPEED OF THE POLEWARD AND EVENTUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURNS DIFFERENTLY.
GIVEN THIS PATTERN, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//