Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2017-08-12 2115Z

WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT RING OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
NEWLY FORMED 10NM EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS AND
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST
FEEDING INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST, AND A POINT-SOURCE
ANALYZED DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO VERY
LOW SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT, AND TY 14W IS TRACKING OVER VERY WARM
WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY 14W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. WARM SSTS WILL PERSIST WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 36 AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
INTRODUCING OUTFLOW RESISTANCE AND HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND. AROUND TAU 48 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ERODING THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EVENTUALLY
THE TROUGH WILL CAPTURE TY 14W BY TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS BANYAN SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
BUT THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//