Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2017-08-13 0145Z

WDPN31 PGTW 130200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN)
WARNING NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 14W (BANYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM NORTHWEST OF
WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
TIGHTLY ROUND SYSTEM WITH COMPACT RING OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
AND A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS AND IS BASED
ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST FEEDING INTO A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST, AND A POINT-SOURCE ANALYZED
DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO VERY LOW
SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT, AND TY 14W IS TRACKING OVER VERY WARM WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TY 14W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY
THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. WARM SSTS WILL PERSIST WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS. AROUND TAU 24 TO
36 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
INTRODUCING SOME RESISTANCE TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THUS HALTING THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND. AROUND TAU 48 A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ERODING THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH WILL CAPTURE TY 14W BY TAU 72 AND SSTS WILL
COOL AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 14W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE STR AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
TS BANYAN SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR TAU 96 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY,
BUT THERE IS STILL A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE
STR AXIS AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY,
THERE IS OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
TRACK.//