Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wd/wdpn31.pgtw..txt, recovered at: 2017-10-12 1445Z

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (KHANUN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES
TO IMPROVE IN STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. A 121030Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 34 KNOTS AND A CONTINUALLY
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW (ENHANCED BY
THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE EAST), WARM SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS), AND
HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 24W IS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
     B. TS 24W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR. TS 24W WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS
IT TRANSITS OVER LUZON. UPON ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU
12 THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE. BY TAU 24 THE INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE TO 40 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER FROM LUZON AND
OUT OVER WARM OCEAN WATER WITH SSTS OF 29-30 CELSIUS. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET MODEL. BY TAU 42 A SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE STR WILL ALLOW FOR TS 24W TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INCREASING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS AT TAU 72.
     C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN HAINAN ISLAND JUST AFTER
TAU 72, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. TS 24W WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN IN NORTHERN VIETNAM AFTER TAU 96 AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAU 120 WHERE SEVERAL MODELS
SHOW A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STR LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND
KEEP THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK./=