Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtin20.dems..txt, recovered at: 2017-12-07 1445Z

WTIN20 DEMS 071448
           SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 07.12.2017
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 1500 UTC
OF 07.12.2017 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 07.12.2017.
BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA:

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED
FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 11 KMPH DURING
PAST 6 HOURS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 07 DECEMBER,
2017 OVER SOUTHEAST AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8O N AND LONGITUDE 87.7 OE, ABOUT 770 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
 OF GOPALPUR (43049) AND 800 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
MACHILIPATNAM
(43185). THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
REACH NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTH ODISHA COASTS AROUND 9TH
DECEMBER MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A
DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
PROBABILITY OF SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHEN IT REACHES NEAR
NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH AND SOUTH ODISHA COASTS AROUND 9TH DECEMBER
MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA AND THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEA
CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THE INTENSITY IS T1.5. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW TO MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LIE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH EAST BAY OF BENGAL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LIES TO THE
NORTH OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE SYSTEM REGION IS 28-29 0C.
SST IS DECREASING TO THE NORTH AND TO THE WEST. THE OCEAN THERMAL
 ENERGY IS ABOUT 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SYSTEM AREA. IT IS
DECREASING FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WHEN THE SYSTEM
REACHES NEAR TO THE COAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER SEA, LOWER
OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY AND INCREASED SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER
 LEVEL WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN WESTERLIES. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND
IT IS INCREASING TO NORTH AND TO THE WEST. THE LOW LEVEL RELATIVE
VORTICITY IS AROUND 100 X 10 -6 S-1 TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 40 X 10 -5 S-1 TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ABOUT
20 X 10 -5 S-1 TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) LIES IN PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN
1 AND IS LIKELY TO MOVE TO PHASE 6 IN NEXT TWO DAYS. CONSIDERING
ALL THESE, INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE LIIMITED UPTO DEEP
 DEPRESSION. THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHEN
IT REACHES NEAR THE COAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANTI CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL, THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
 WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE SYSTEM AT UPPER LEVEL, WHICH SUGGEST THE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND
ALSO SUGGEST SIMILAR MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ALL THE NWP MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE CONCLUSIONS.=